Netanyahu wins in Israel for the 5th time

[Updated to reflect the final vote tallies and that The New Right slipped below the threshold]

Israel has voted and it seems pretty clear that Benjamin Netanyahu has succeeded in his aim of becoming the country’s longest serving Prime Minister. After a fractious campaign against the new Blue and White Party led by former Army Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, Netanyahu is in the best place to form a ruling coalition.

As ever in Israel, no single party has enough seats to form a government on its own. The national list system, combined with a 3.25% threshold, means that there are going to be either 11 or 12 parties in the 120 seat Knesset. And with religious parties and parties on the right being able to muster around 67 of those seats, Netanyahu is in a much stronger position than Gantz.

As things stand, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party holds 36 seats. Their potential coalition partners line up as follows:

Shas 8; UTJ 7; Yisrael Beytenu 5; Kulanu 4; URP 5;

Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party holds 35 seats, and the rest of the opposition is:

Labor 6; Meretz 4; Hadash-Ta’al 6; Ra’am-Balad 4.

After voting was over and all ballots have been counted, there was still some uncertainty. The New Right, a party formed by former Minister Neftali Bennet, was briefly listed as securing 3.26% of the vote. But the Central Election Committee reviewed some of the ballots cast by soldiers and others using an absentee ‘double envelope’ system. As a result,  TNR slipped below the threshold and lost their four seats. This didn’t change the overall outcome of the election that much, but still constitutes a massive failure for Bennet who helped to bring down the previous government when he walked out of Netanyahu’s cabinet.

Formally, the parties have two weeks of horse-trading before the President calls them in to see who can form a government. He does not have to call on a party leader to be the new Prime Minister, but it seems all but certain that Netanyahu will be receiving the call.

The campaign itself was dominated by unprecedented interventions from abroad with Netanyahu getting the explicit backing of Donald Trump (who announced his support for formally recognising the Golan Heights as part of Israeli territory) and implicit support from Russian, Brazillian and Indian leaders. Netanyahu pulled his traditional last minute rabbit out of the hat by suggesting that he will look to annexe much of the West Bank into Israel. Whether he follows through on this pledge is still in the air.

The other key issue is an investigation by the Attorney General into Netanyahu over ossies of corruption. The indictment has been published and looks strong but will the Prime Minister excape being charged by adopting some form of immunity – the so-called ‘French law’? Will he then seek to become President and avoid the courts for a further 10 years? What will that do for confidence in the Israeli political and judicial system? All these are questions that will dominate Israeli politics for some time to come.

Elections to watch 2019

There are around 100 national and multi-national elections due to take place in 2019. But the two polls which will garner the most coverage are one which won’t take place until 2020 – the US Presidential election – and one which may or may not happen – an early UK general election.

However there are some highly significant elections coming up which will have an impact on world affairs. I’ve picked a dozen which I think are worth watching:

 

  1. Nigeria: President and Parliament (due 16th February)

Africa’s biggest oil producer goes to the polls

images-3Nigeria’s general election will see the country choose a President and Parliament for the next four years. The President will be the candidate receiving the most votes, but they will only avoid a second round if they get over 25% of the votes in two thirds of the states. Representatives will be elected from each of 360 single member seats and Senators in 108 single member seats using first-past-the-post.

President Buhari is seeking re-election and will face challenges from at least 15 other candidates led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

One factor in this election will be the on-going challenges of the Boko Haram insurgency in the north.

Chatham House and IRI have each produced primers.

 

  1. Thailand: Parliament (due 24th March)

Will the military hand over power?

181292-004-499f1bb9These elections are taking place five years after the last vote. But any idea that the regime elected in 2014 has been governing since then would be wrong. The 2014 elections were declared invalid as the vote had been delayed in part of the country. Rather than the replacement elections that were due the following year, the army launched a coup d’etat and have been in power ever since. They promised new elections in 2015, 2016, 2017 and again in 2018 but none were held.

After these elections, the new Prime Minister will be chosen by a majority vote of both houses of Parliament. The upper house, the Senate, will be entirely appointed by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), the name given to the military junta following the 2014 coup. A late decision to delay re-districting has also caused controversy.

Four political parties have significant support in opinion polls. The Pheu Thai, Forward Future and Democrat parties are broadly oppositional with the Phalang Pracharat being seen as a vehicle for former general and current Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha (pictured).

The main question will be whether the military allows the popular will of the people as expressed through the ballot box to prevail, or whether they seek to impose their chosen candidate as Prime Minister whatever the result.

 

  1. Ukraine: President (due 31st March) and Parliament (due end of October)

Old hands do battle once again as conflict rages in the East

ukraine-presidential-election-timelineHolding elections when a country is engaged in armed conflict is a testing proposition. Ukraine looks like it will be doing so twice in 2019. Crimea has been annexed by Russia and there are ongoing conflicts in the Donbass region which means polls won’t be held there. At the same time, large numbers of ethnic Russian citizens of Ukraine have fled the country. Since the country gained independence in 1991, Ukraine has seen two revolutions and the country has tilted decisively to a pro-western and nationalist standpoint. 

The Presidential election will pitch two old hands against each other with incumbent Petro Poroshenko up against former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. However, polls suggest that each of these candidates has high negative ratings and there are likely to be at least a dozen other contestants. You can expect this contest to go to a second round towards the end of April.

Six months later the country will go to the polls again in Parliamentary elections. A lot can and will change before then, but it is likely there will be no bloc with an overall majority.

Elections often see a ramping up in rhetoric and some heated conditions. In most countries that subsides very quickly with no lasting impact. Ukraine, however, might be a different case.

 

  1. Israel: Parliament (due 9th April)

Will Netanyahu win another term?

benjamin-netanyahuIsraeli elections are always complex matters. These early polls have been called after Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition suffered the loss of one of its partners. But the traditional opposition coalition has also fallen apart and so the main challenge will come from the Attorney General – who promises to reach a decision on indicting the PM on fraud bribery and breach of trust charges – and from former Army Chief of Staff Benny Gantz who has launched a new party.

The outcome of the election (which uses a national list system) will be one where no party is even close to a majority and so coalition negotiations will begin.

 

  1. South Africa: Parliament (due April)

ANC victory looks likely again, but will a genuine challenger emerge?

mg-elections-appWill this election finally see the end for the ANC? Probably not, but the party of Nelson Mandela is mired in corruption allegations and new president Cyril Ramaphosa is having a hard time keeping his party together. He faces challenges from the main opposition Democratic Alliance and the left wing EFF as well as a host of smaller parties.

The ANC still has a commanding lead in opinion polls and failure to win an overall majority would be a massive surprise. But the relative performance of the opposition parties could give an indication as to where the country is heading in the future.

 

  1. India: Parliament (due between April and May) 

Massive forces collide in the world’s biggest democracy

narendramodiIndia will vote this spring in an election that looks likely to produce a hung parliament. There will be 543 MPs elected in single member, first-past-the-post constituencies.

The ruling Hindu Nationalist BJP will head a thirteen party coalition known as the National Democratic Alliance. Their traditional opponents, the Congress Party, will head the United Progressive Alliance. Dozens of other parties and independent candidates will also contest the polls with alliances often based on local interests.

One of the key issues for outsiders will be the influence of fake news and social media in the election. Although the country is one of the world’s poorest, the number of smart phones has grown hugely since the last contest and a huge proportion of the population is said to use these as their main source of news. The spread of false information through social media platforms such as WhatsApp has been reported as being responsible for mob lynchings and parties have put a lot of effort into establishing pyramids for disseminating information about the campaign. As these are closed groups there is no systematic monitoring of what is being said.

 

  1. Australia: Senate and House (due by 18th May for half of the Senate and by 2nd November for the House of Representatives and Territory Senators)

Highly combative election with outcome in the balance

federal-electionAustralia is interesting for election watchers because of its use of compulsory voting (there are 22 countries which do so worldwide) and voting systems. The lower chamber – the 151 member House of Representatives – uses the Alternative Vote (AV or instant run off voting). This is a preferential system in single member seats so the elected representative will have been chosen by more than half of those who vote. The upper chamber, the Senate, has 76 members and is chosen by the single transferable vote (STV). However it is a bastardised form of STV where voters can choose to cast their vote for a party list in party preferred order (a single, simple tick ‘above the line’) or they have to indicate a preference for at least 60% of the potentially hundreds of candidates ‘below the line’.

The two main parties in the country are Labor and the Liberal-National coalition. The coalition held the majority under Premier Malcolm Turnbull until he was deposed as Prime Minister in 2018. He subsequently resigned his seat which was lost to an independent in the subsequent by-election. This also caused the coalition to lose its majority.

Current opinion polls have the two main groupings neck and neck on about 38% but with a marginal preference for the Labor Party in two party preference polling. The Greens are polling at about 9% with the populist One Nation Party on about 6% and others at about 10%.

Australia is a turbulent political environment and this campaign promises to be highly combative.

 

  1. Afghanistan: President (due 20th July)

Failures of liberal international order likely to be exposed again

300px-afghan_elections_2005Afghanistan highlights the truism that good intentions cannot make up for an absence of planning or understanding of local circumstances. The failure of the west to import a sustainable system of democracy into Afghanistan is, of course, mainly due to the civil war which has been on-going since the US started military action in 2001. But many are asking whether democratic politics will ever become the norm in the country.

There are currently ten declared candidates for the poll – all men – including incumbent Ashraf Ghani and his main challenger last time, the country’s chief executive Abdullah Abdullah.

The 2014 Presidential poll was mired by allegations of fraud. Parliamentary elections were held in 2018 but issues again arose with potential fraud. More than 20 million polling cards are in circulation for a voting age population of 12 million. As voters are permitted to cast their ballot in any polling station, the potential for fraud is high. During the parliamentary elections many polling stations opened late or not at all and there were widespread reports of violent attacks on election day.

 

  1. Canada: House of Commons (due October)

Blue eyed poster boy of the liberals faces his biggest challenge

trudeau-nomination-20180819Darling of the liberals, Justin Trudeau will face re-election in the autumn in a tough contest. He will be challenged from the right by the Conservatives who have recovered from their near fatal defeats of the early 2000’s and even led in opinion polls early last year. From the left will come the challenge of the NDP who are polling around 15%.

Also running will be the Bloc Quebecois who gained just ten seats last time and find it more difficult to challenege a charismatic Francophone in national elections. The party has also seen the majority of MPs left in protest at leader Martine Ouellet, before rejoining after she quit. The Greens mustered just one seat last time but have 5-8% of the polls and could deny the Liberals some seats just by running. The People’s Party, a populist right wing grouping established by a defecting Conservative MP, will also be contesting.

Trudeau has faced the realities of government since his election win four years ago. A number of manifesto commitments have fallen by the wayside – including a pledge to reform the first-past-the-post voting system – but his party still seems likely to be the largest grouping in the new parliament.

 

  1. Argentina: President and Parliament (due October)

How will South America’s second largest country react to Brazil’s rightward shift?

0028857735Argentina is one of a number of South American nations which will hold elections this autumn and is another country to feature compulsory voting with all those aged 18-70 required to cast a ballot. For those aged over 70, voting is not compulsory. Argentina also allows 16 and 17 year olds to vote – again it is not compulsory for this age group.

The President is elected for a four year term using a two round electoral system. To win in the first round the leading candidate must secure at least 45% of the votes cast or more than 40% and be at least 10% ahead of the next candidate. If neither of these conditions is satisfied then the top two candidates will go to a second round four weeks later.

In Parliament, the Chamber of Deputies is elected using a closed list system based on the provinces. 130 of the 257 seats are up for election this year for a four year period. The Senate is elected in thirds and this year eight provinces will elect three senators each. In each province two senators are won by the party gaining the most votes and one senator is won by the party finishing second.

The split nature of Parliamentary elections emphasises the supremacy of the Presidency within the Argentine constitution. President Mauricio Macri (pictured) has confirmed that he intends to run for a second term. One potential opponent will be Cristina Fernandez, his predecessor.

 

  1. Greece: Parliament (due October)

Will Tsipras be rewarded or ousted for Macedonia deal?

macedonia_greece_namedealAlexis Tsipras engaged in some very courageous political steps when he forged an agreement with Zoran Zaev, the Prime Minister of Macedonia to call a truce to the battle over the name of Greece’s northern neighbour. Controversial in both countries, the decision to recognise the Republic of North Macedonia opens up the prospect of the former Yugoslav republic joining both the EU and NATO.

But the cost paid by Tsipras for such an agreement may prove high. His coalition has fallen apart and the Macedonia deal has reinvigorated the opposition. The question is, will the voters reward his courage or punish him for a deal which pollsters say was opposed by two-thirds of Greeks. The election is not due until the autumn and an indicator may come with the Presidential poll this spring in North Macedonia. If voters there have forgiven Zaev, then maybe Greeks will do the same for Tsipras.

The Macedonia issue is not the only concern for voters of course. Immigration and the slowly recovering economy will also feature highly in the minds of electors as they go to vote.

 

  1. Poland: Parliament (due November)

A test for the European Right

200px-lech_i_maria_kaczynscyThe recent trend for populist and right-wing governments is exemplified in Europe by both Poland and Hungary. And whilst in Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban has steadily drifted rightwards whilst being in power, in Poland the Law and Justice (PiS) party gained power at the last election from their main opponents Civic Platform (PO). The two parties remain at the head of opinion polls with seven others hovering between 3 and 7%.

The election will be conducted by open list PR voting with a 5% threshold.

Over the last four years, the PiS has held an overall majority and has used this to make it more difficult for the Supreme Court to overturn government decisions and to give the government greater control over state TV and radio. These changes have led to protests by opposition parties. The question for voters is whether to consolidate the right wing government or drift back towards the centre.

Facebook rolls out new political ad rules

Facebook has announced that it is rolling out new rules on the use of its platform for political advertising in some of the countries with elections due this year. This is just one of the developments to take place on this issue in recent days.

Reuters reports that beginning on Wednesday in Nigeria, only advertisers located in the country will be able to run electoral ads, mirroring a policy unveiled during an Irish referendum last May.

The same policy will take effect in Ukraine in February. Nigeria holds a presidential election on Feb. 16, while Ukraine will follow on March 31.

In India, which votes for parliament this spring, Facebook will place electoral ads in a searchable online library starting from next month.

The library will resemble archives brought to the United States, Brazil and Britain last year.

However, policies in different countries will vary and  with more than 100 national and international elections taking place in 2019, it appears that Facebook will not be tightening up the rules in every case. Even in large democracies such as  Australia, Indonesia, Israel and the Philippines, Facebook is still deciding what to do. If voters in these countries cannot be sure that the network will introduce transparency rules in time for their votes, how long will it take for the company to reach Macedonia or Bolivia – two more countries which have votes this year.

In other news, Likud has said that it will block Israeli attempts to stop dubious online campaigning in the forthcoming general election. This is despite claims by Shin Bet that another country is planning to try to disrupt the elections. Accusations have previously been levelled at Likud’s use of online campaigning.

And in the UK, the organisation Full Fact has announced that it will start factchecking Facebook posts. This will not be specifically targeted at political or election content but will include such content.

Israel gears up to defend election against cyber attacks

With a general election coming in April, Israeli officials have announced they believe the country is being targeted by foreign players intent on disrupting the process. They are taking action to ensure that online activities will not affect the poll. The country’s internal security agency Shin Bet has said that a specific country is intent on disrupting the poll.

The details of what (and who) is suspected have been redacted. Israel uses paper ballots rather than electronic voting and so the potential to disrupt election day itself is lessened. However the country’s authorities are still concerned about the impact of social media and a large number of apparently fake profiles are under investigation.

The Central Elections Committee has said that it does not believe it currently has the tools needed to deal with an attempt to interfere in the election. However Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that he believes the country is well prepared to deal with any such threat.

Electronic interference in an election (whether by a foreign power or someone else) can take a number of forms. At one extreme is a direct attempt to manipulate the results by rigging electronic voting machines or intercepting and changing the electronic results transmissions. That is possible in some countries but much less so in others due to the type of election process.

At the other end of the scale is so-called ‘fake news’. Attempting to police this is extremely difficult. Some things might be demonstrably false but covered by freedom of speech. Other claims might be political conjecture. Israel’s CEC has said that it is for each individual to make up their own mind on such matters and that it will not get involved.

A Parliamentary bill seeking to clamp down on fake news by compelling the authors of any paid political content, including comments, to identify themselves publicly — a move that will apply both to the internet and to more traditional campaign materials, such as posters – has been introduced into the Knesset but with parliament currently in recess until the April elections, it will have to wait until the next national ballot.

There’s a more detailed report here.

Israeli elections scheduled for early April

An Israeli general election will take place in April. The early poll has been on the cards for a few weeks after turmoil within the ruling cabinet, but it will be a more ordered election than many had feared.

There have been a number of fallings out among Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition with the latest dispute about conscription for ultra-orthodox jews.

Netanyahu would be likely to become the longest serving Prime Minister of the country since its establishment in 1948 if he wins in April. However, he is under investigation for alleged corruption offences and the country’s Attorney General is due to decide whether he should be charged.

Israel Election overview

benjamin-netanyahuAn early election in Israel is on the cards after one of the junior coalition partners in Benjamin Netanyahu’s government pulled out and another quit after not being given the vacant ministry.

UPDATE 19/11: Rumours of an early election may (just may) have been exaggerated. Neftali Bennet, the leader of The Jewish Home (the second party referred to above) has decided not to pull out of the coalition. This means Netanyahu will stay in power for now. But an early election at some point still seems more likely than not.

Overview

Early elections aren’t exactly new in Israel as governments are usually multi-party affairs and Prime Ministers beholden to the whims and foibles of junior partners. An attempt to make them more stable by directly electing the PM was tried from 1996 to 2001 but abandoned after those government’s also ran short.

Why is the system so fragile? Partly because of the national list system of electing Members of the Knesset (MKs). There are 10 parties and one independent in the 120 member unicameral Parliament despite efforts to tighten the system in recent years. In the past there was a 1% threshold before parties could gain a seat. That was progressively raised from 1988 to 2014 to the 3.25% limit that currently exists which means that parties entitled to fewer than 4 seats won’t get any at all. However there is nothing to prevent two or more parties running on a single list and, once in the Knesset, splitting apart again.

But the voting system cannot be held solely responsible. The fractured nature of Israeli politics (no party has more than about 30% support and there are many in the 3-6% range) has led to parties representing every strand of religious and political opinion.

Prime Minister Netanyahu leads Likud into this election as the strongest party and polls suggest that the centre right coalition of Likud and the religious parties will be the predominent force after the election. And so it might seem legitimate to ask why an election is needed at all. My reading is that an election allows each key actor to test their strength and take their place in the new Knesset (and government) accordingly. New parties come and go all the time in Israeli politics and it may be that one of these becomes a significant player.

The 2015 coalition was formed of just 61 MKs, the bare minimum for a majority and comprised Likud, Jewish Home, UTJ, Kulanu and Shas. Yisrael Beiteinu joined the coalition a year later. Negotiating coalitions is not the quickest process in the world and Netanyahu had to ask President Reuven Rivlin for an extension to the normal timetable for forming a government and came in only 2 hours before the revised deadline. 

The major change since the 2015 election is the collapse of the Zionist Union. This coalition of Labor and Hetnuah parties was created in order to challenge Netanyahu’s dominant position. It didn’t succeed and won just 24 seats to Likud’s 30. Hetnuah itself was only established by former foreign Minister Tzipi Livni in 2012 as a breakaway from Kadima, which was itself a splinter of moderates from Likud.

Yesh Atid has emerged as the biggest challenger to Likud. Yesh Atid are a centrist party seeking to represent the secular middle class founded in 2012. As such they compete directly with Zionist Union and climbed as high as 27% in the polls last year. However they now rest at around 16%.

But things will likely change again before voters have their say. Orly Levy split from Yisrael Beiteinu to sit as an independent MK and has stated a desire to form her own party. In addition, the Achi Yisraeli party has been created and former army general Benny Gantz has indicated a desire to enter politics either by founding his own party or with Achi Yisraeli. Both will encroach on the secular centre or centre right market and it will be interesting to see whether they can draw votes from Likud as well as Yesh Atid and Zionist Union.

Practicalities

The voting process in Israel is open to all citizens aged 18 or older on election day. Voters are given a ballot envelope and take the ballot slip corresponding to their chosen party or list when in the privacy of the polling booth.

Voting is conducted on the basis of a closed national list with seats allocated by the d’Hondt counting system.

A further quirk is the ability of parties which run separately to be considered to have run on a joint list when it comes to surplus votes. The d’Hondt system marginally favours larger lists over smaller. So if parties run together they are more likely to pick up the last allocated seats. Such agreements have been signed by Likud with Jewish Home, Yisrael Beiteinu with Kulanu, the Zionist Union with Meretz and Shas with UTJ.

Turnout in 2015 was 72% after a run of four elections with participation rates in the 60’s. The record turnout was 87% in the first election in 1949.

The parties

Likud ran in 2015 on an anti-Iran, economically right-wing platform whilst also walking away from any idea of support for a Palestinian state. Netanyahu’s polling day exhortation to supporters to vote in order to save the Israeli nation was criticised by US President Barack Obama and he later said he regretted making it.

Likud (and Netanyahu in particular) has a history of producing controversial but amusing election adverts, such as this one.

Leader: Benjamin Netanyahu 2015 seats: 30 Current polling: 29-32%*

The Zionist Union of Labor and Hatnuah had the teething problems of any joint ticket in 2015. In a pledge which brought to mind the Alliance campaign of the UK’s 1983 election, the parties pledged to have rotating prime ministers, although Hatnuah leader Tzipi Livni retracted that pledge the day before polling day when she announced that Labour Leader Isaac Herzog would be Prime Minister. The platform of the list was all about reigniting the peace process as well as social reforms. In 2015, the Zionist Union proved strongest in Tel Aviv and the more wealthy areas of Israel and won the most votes in 28 of the 33 richest areas of the country.

Leader: Avi Gabbay 2015 seats: 24 Current polling: 11%

The Joint List ran on the basis of a peace based on UN resolutions and the formation of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.

Leader: Ayman Odeh 2015 seats: 13 Current polling: 12%

Yesh Atid went into the 2015 election having been the kingmakers in 2013. But after taking on the finance ministry the party reneged on apparent pledges made to its supporters and implemented austerity cuts in order to cut the deficit. The party’s platform in 2015 was decidedly middle-ground on issues of peace and Iran and re-iterated pledges to invest more in health, education and welfare spending.

Leader: Yair Lapid 2015 seats: 11 Current polling: 16%

Kulanu, as a new party, ran in 2015 on the promise of breaking up monopolies and lowering the cost of living. Leader Moshe Kahlon formed the party after breaking away from Likud and sought to deflect questions as to whether he would back a Likud or Zionist Union government. His deputy Yoav Galant suggested a favouring of a left-leaning government but, in the event, the party joined the Likud-led coalition.

Leader: Moshe Kahlon 2015 seats: 10 Current polling: 8%

The Jewish Home ran in 2015 as a single state party backing small businesses and the middle class.

Leader: Naftali Bennet 2015 seats: 8 Current polling: 11%

Yisrael Beiteinu, which had run in 2013 on a joint list with Likud, was on its own in 2015. Avigdor Lieberman had proposed his own peace place which was controversial due to the huge population swaps which would have resulted. The party also supported a mortgage plan portrayed as right-wing and the return of the death penalty for terrorist cases.

Leader: Avigdor Lieberman 2015 seats: 6 Current polling: 8%

United Torah Judaism (UTJ) is an alliance of Haredi and Hasidic supported parties and favours a lasting peace, less government involvement in the economy and more help to ultra-orthodox families.

Leader: Yaakov Litzman 2015 seats: 6 Current polling: 8%

Shas, an ultra-orthodox party seeking the support of the sephardic haredic community ran on the basis of there being no opportunity for a peace process as there was no viable leader seeking peace on the Palestinian side. So their focus was purely socio-economic. However in 2015 the party was struggling after a number of years of controversy following the conviction and later release of Aryeh Deri, the former leader who once again was given the number one slot on the electoral list.

Leader: Aryeh Deri 2015 seats: 7 Current polling: 5%

Meretz is the most vocal party within the peace camp and urged a two state solution and agreed land swaps. The party also proposes a left-wing economic programme.

Leader: Tamar Zandberg 2015 seats: 5 Current polling: 6%

A further 15 parties failed to win seats in the 2015 election, albeit only two of these won more than a handful of votes.

New parties:

Un-named Levy party

Leader: Orly Levy Current polling: 6%

Achi Yisraeli

Leader: Adina Bar-Shalom and Michael Biton Current polling: ??

 

*Israel has a vibrant polling scene. For regular updates, see here.